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China has sent its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near remote Japan's territory as China escalates strains over the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have consistently clashed around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.